colorado and the president has a small lead in nevada. the president wrapped up his 48-hour battleground blitz last night and in these final days he has one clear message -- >> it has to do with trust. there's no more serious issue in a presidential campaign than trust. trust matters. do you know what, ohio, after all these years, you now know me. you know that i mean what i say. and i say what i mean. >> and joe biden hitting a similar theme in an op-ed piece out this morning in "usa today." he wrote, quote, when you step into the voting booth, consider which candidate you trust. who understands the challenges and choices your family faces? and who has the clear plan to lead us forward? mitt romney will reveal more of his plan to the country in a major economic speech later this afternoon in iowa.

but out on the trail he's already following a line from obama back in 2008. >> and so the american people now have to recognize that given the big challenges we have and the big election we have, it's time for a big change, and paul ryan and i represent a big change for america. >> i want to bring in jonathan capeha capehart, good morning. >> good morning. >> is this what it's come down to, trust versus change? >> yes. i mean, it's good that you pointed this out. this is sort of the president ran on the change message in 2008. and now that he has a record to run on and an opponent who's been sort of a bit of a phantom when it comes to exactly what he wants to do if he were to get the white house the next four years exactly how he's going to pay for everything and what the details of those plans, you know, the president is now making the argument that as you showed in the clip, the american people know him, you know what

he's about. but -- and you can trust him as opposed to mitt romney who has been on every side of every issue since he started running for president six years ago. >> in making the pitch to obviously a very small number of people who are undecided or may be willing to change their minds, change who they are going to vote for, in that context, let me ask you about the polls because, you know, we've talked a lot about how some of them have been very far off, but, you know, i think at this point you look at the tracking polls, they're pretty close to one another, the two that came out today with romney having a slight lead. battleground polls where it looks like president obama still has the edge. where are we in this race right now? >> well, we all know that this race comes down to the states and the electoral map and that's why we crunch the numbers and look into it. this is why ohio is so important and why colorado is so important, why a state like nevada is so important. and now you're seeing president obama with a slight advantage and a pretty strong advantage in

nevada, that three-point lead, you know, is because mitt romney has a lot of enthusiasm with republicans. it might be as high as he goes, 47%, 48%, kind of tough to see where the three points takes him -- how he finds the other three points when he's down six with registered voters and obama has such a big lead there with hispanics. in colorado we've seen a big, big shift to mitt romney, before the debate the president was up 50-45 and now it's dead even, but that lead it looks like it's trending more romney's direction even if it's by a point or two because of what happened in the denver suburbs. you see a flip, obama was up about a month ago, now romney is up and with denver -- suburban denver women where obama had an 18-point lead, that lead is down to just three. and romney expanded his advantage with men. so, i don't know that there's a lot that can change the dynamic there. all i know is it's going to be a

really close race and the president's kept in the race because of latino support in colorado as well. >> let's talk a little bit more, jonathan, about women in colorado and nevada, because the president has gone from double-digit leads to single-digit leads there, obviously still leading among women but you have a lot of attention being paid frankly because of things that people like mourdock has said, the war on women, do you think that will turn around? is the president going to expand his lead again? what's going on with the women vote in these key battleground states? >> that's an interesting question because i've been trying to figure that out as well. i mean, the republicans have handed the democrats in general and the president in particular plenty of material to show the contrast and the differences between the president and governor romney when it comes to women's issues and you remember from i believe it was the second debate when the president made the all-important pivot from talking about choice and women's

health to economic issues. talking about how, you know, making contraception available to women is a pocketbook issue. the president's been driving very hard on that message and trying to reach out to women. for some reason stubbornly it's not getting through in the way that the president needs in order to overcome governor romney's growing advantage. >> can we talk about something else, you know, in the whole sort of idea of things that people say, john sununu now walking back his comments about colin powell's endorsement of the president. but let me play first what he said last night. >> if you take a look at colin powell, you have to wonder whether it's an endorsement based on issues or whether he's got a slightly different reason for preferring president obama. >> what reason would that be? >> well, i think when you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president of the united states, i applaud colin for standing with him. >> then he released a statement really late, colin powell is a friend and i respect the

endorsement decision he made and i do not doubt that it was based on anything but his support of the president's policies. piers morgan's question was about whether he should leave the party, i do not think he should. may it may not move votes, but does it take mitt romney off message? >> it absolutely does, between this, things like richard mourdock. john sununu will certainly be speaking his mind about a host of issues, you never know what you're going to get sometimes. and this is certainly a headache the romney people don't want to have to deal with which is why you saw their statement distancing themselves so quickly from this right after sununu said that. >> hang around, guys, i want to bring in brad woodhouse, communications director for the dnc. good to see you. >> hi, chris. >> let me read to you something that peggy noonan wrote in "the wall street journal" this morning, she's talking a little bit about bob woodward's book

and the president's debate performance and how it was viewed by voters, quote, they didn't see an odd version of the president, they saw the president and they didn't like what they saw and that would linger. do you think that peggy noonan is right to some extent? are the polls so close because the president is still battling this bad debate performance in the first debate? >> i don't think so, chris. we predicted long before there were any presidential debates, before mitt romney was the nominee, that this would be a very tight race that would go down to the wire. the problem for mitt romney, though, is that no matter how close the national polls are, we know this is not a national election. he has to run the table and he has to run the table in the battleground states, the president doesn't have to run the table. he's got a bank of electoral votes that already have him ahead of states that he will win -- that already has him ahead of mitt romney. ohio is looking strong. wisconsin is looking strong. iowa is trending -- is trending

our way, nevada i think is very much trending our way. and we win those states, we win the presidency. and mitt romney has to run the table. and the problem is that there's a lack of enthusiasm among undecided voters in these states because they don't trust his policies and they don't want to go back to the policies that failed us in the bush administration. >> well, obviously, brad, the romney campaign disagrees with you and let me talk specifically about ohio because there's this memo from the romney cam main in ohio and here's what it says, a steady upward trajectory among key voting blocs shows a close race but one trending in mitt prom romney's direction. the polls show up 1 to 5 points. the memo from the directors, what do you say about the trajectory and the momentum? >> i would say in ohio "time"

magazine had the president up five and one point away from 50. mitt romney's never cracked the code in ohio and he's never going to. i mean, this is a state that the republican governor there has said has recovered economically. he can't say that without attributing some of that success to the president. it's a state where mitt romney suffers in the north because he said let detroit go bankrupt and he's in there trying to convince people that he didn't say that when he did. it's not going to resonate. ohio's going to be in the president's column because ohio has moved forward under the president's leadership. >> what do you think it's going to come down to because they're certainly not giving up? we've seen how often mitt romney has been there and so has the president. he's got three visits this week, more ad spending this week than in any other state. what are you looking at? what will be the key there? is it suburban women voters? >> i think it will be a few things. one, i think it will be blue collar voters in the north, it will be autoworkers.

it is going to be suburban women. but, you know, in the end, you know, the president goes, he holds these rallies, thousands of people come out. we're trying to turn out every vote we can. we're not going to cede any demographic, we're going to make a strong case, the president has moved ohio forward, he's moved the country forward. and remember this, mitt romney talks about change, he's not proposing anything different than what we got in the bush-cheney years. he wants to go back to their very policies, so the american people don't want that. certainly the people of ohio don't want that and i do think this race -- i don't think this race will come down to ohio. it certainly doesn't come down to ohio for us. i do think it comes down to ohio for him. if he loses it, i don't believe he'll be president. i'm convinced he'll lose it. >> brad woodhouse, good to see you. >> thanks, chris. >> try to get an hour or two of sleep every night. it's tough in the closing days. what do you think about this, jonathan, my home state, but

where a lot of attention has been focused. >> no republican has won the white house without winning ohio. but, you know, it's very important for the president, not only because of, you know, the auto bailout and what it meant to people in ohio and michigan and wisconsin and other states who depended on that, but it would show that the president made the right bet in doing that with the auto bailout, the right bet in focusing on ohio to ensure that the state that he took in 2008 will be in his column again in 2012. but, you know, these polls being so close not only in ohio but colorado and nevada and other key states, this -- tuesday night, what's today? how many days do we have left, chris? 12? >> 11 days and counting. >> 11 days, that and november 6th night we'll be sitting on the edge of our seats like everyone else in the country wondering how the states will go and particularly ohio

considering the things i mentioned before. >> bill clinton will be with the president on wednesday in youngstown, ohio. we were talking about -- we were counting how many times they said ohio on "morning joe" and we finally gave up because it was so many. final question for you, demonico, there's a little thing called sandy roiling out there, could it interrupt the president's travel plans? >> sure. nobody knows what will happen with sandy. what it will do in the next week with travel plans, with early vote -- >> i mean not just in his ability to get somewhere but would he potentially cancel some things if it's really bad? >> you just don't know, but definitely i would think so potentially if there's flooding or outages and then, you know, he has to, then, take on the role of president. remember, this storm killed 21 people in the caribbean, you know, if something were to happen, if there were a major crisis somewhere, the president would then have to step up to the plate to be -- put on the president hat instead of campaigner and there aren't that

many campaign days left. >> thanks to both of you. have a good weekend. >> thanks, chris. >> thank you. we mentioned the hurricane, sandy is on track to cause millions maybe more than a billion dollars in damage along heavily populated areas of the east coast next week. forecasters are saying this could be high winds, heavy rain, extreme tides, maybe even snow further inland. more on hurricane sandy coming up in a live report. everything can cost upwards of...[ whistles ] i did not want to think about that. relax, relax, relax. look at me, look at me. three words, dad -- e-trade financial consultants. so i can just go talk to 'em? just walk right in and talk to 'em. dude, those guys are pros. they'll hook you up with a solid plan. they'll -- wa-- wa-- wait a minute. bobby? bobby! what are you doing, man? i'm speed dating! [ male announcer ] get investing advice for your family at e-trade. and one wedding, 2 kids, 43 bottles of olay total effects many birthdays later,

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watchdog groups say dirty tricks aimed at keeping minority voters from the polls are popping up in several key states and now the fbi is investigating. residents in 28 florida counties have gotten letters challenging their citizenship and their right to vote. >> this is an attempt to intimidate voters in one of the most important states in the

united states in a national election. >> meantime, the son of virginia democratic congressman jim moran quit his father's campaign after a conservative group released undercover video of the congressman's son in a plan to cast fraudulent ballots and the attorney general is investigating a gop operative for throwing away voter registration forms in a dumpster. joining me now jane mayor whose new article takes an in-depth look at voter fraud. it's good to see you, jane, good morning. >> great to this me with you, chris. >> the title of your article is "the voter fraud myth" people might look at the examples and say, well, there are examples out there, but what do we know about how prevalent voter fraud is really? >> that's what i was trying to look in to and basically what i found the kind of fraud that is voter i.d. fraud, that is voters going to the polls and pretending to be someone else that they're not, it's almost nonexistent.

it was that kind of fraud that really fueled the push for the new voter i.d. laws in 37 states have had this kind of legislation pushed. and, you know, you have to look at the situation and think, if that kind of voter fraud doesn't really exist, then why are we having all these new laws that are creating confusion at the polls about what kind of identity cards you need to bring and you really got to wonder. i mean, in a close election like this, i think that, you know, the fear is that it may create some confusion and upset on election day. >> well, your piece also details the story of teresa sharp, she's 53, an african-american woman from cincinnati, it ghoes to th heart of the story. tell us her story. >> it's a real example of a person, she's 53 years old, lives outside cincinnati, she has voted every election since

he was 18, she's a democrat, african-american and lived in the same house for 33 years. and she got this very scary letter in the mail that said her right to vote was being challenged. and she -- if she wanted to stand up for herself and for her right to vote, she had to go to this city election board and be there at 8:30 in the morning on a monday morning. and explain herself. and so she did go down there, and she took them on and she won because it turned out that this letter had been sent by people, some citizens group that misread information and they claimed that she was living in a vacant lot along with her seven family members who were adult voters also. she's got an aunt, she's got grown kids and a husband. and it turned out it was -- they were wrong. and they apologized, but by then, you know, she'd had to take her family down and defend

her own right to vote and she was really mad. i talked to her about it. and, you know, she felt it was a form of intimidation and wondered what would have happened if she hadn't been able to show up there in the middle of, you know, first thing in the morning on a weekday. so, there's a lot of confusion out there. there are citizens groups popping up that are challenging people's voter registration -- >> let me ask you about the -- you said the 37 states where these laws -- the democrats have indeed fought them pretty hard. so, where are we now? how successful have the democrats been or these conservative groups been, how much of a problem are these challenges likely to be come november 6th? >> at this point the courts have ruled in a number -- in a handful of cases in favor of the democrats saying these voter i.d. laws unless you can make them really fair and make sure that everybody's got access to an i.d. in a freeway so that it's not actually putting a cost on voting, the courts have suspended a lot of these laws in

various states, but there are a handful in states in which they're fairly strict i.d. laws already. it depends how strict -- you know, how you count them. it's a handful of states where this is going to happen, and then there are many more states and many more voters that have gotten letters like this which is about registration, not about actually, you know, what you bring to the polls. so, i mean, i think what was interesting to me as a reporter was i thought that maybe there really was fraud all over the country after hearing these reports about it and listening to these, you know, the arguments in legislatures. and it turns out that there have been exactly seven cases of voter i.d. fraud since 2000. there are more cases of people violating migratory bird statutes that there are of election fraud. so, it happens. it's -- it should never happen at all, but it is a really rare thing, and i think it's probably creating a lot of upset out

there, and in a close election, the turnout issue is key. >> jane mayer, it's a tremendous piece of reporting in the "new yorker" thanks so much for coming on the program. we're still several weeks away from the automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that go into effect january 1st but americans are already feeling the effects of a looming fiscal cliff. a new report from the national association of manufacturers says just the prospect of these extreme measures going into place has already cost nearly a million jobs and the report says if congress fails to act and allows the country to go over the fiscal cliff we could see unemployment climb to 12%. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china, brazil, ishares, small-caps, large-caps, ishares.

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to politics now. the obama campaign wants to remind people of the 2000 presidential race and the florida recount to get them to vote. >> 537, the number of votes that

changed the course of american history. >> florida is too close to call. >> the difference between what was and what could have been. so, this year if you're thinking that your vote doesn't count, that it won't matter, well, back then there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way. >> president obama became the first sitting president to vote early yesterday in his hometown of chicago. he joked he couldn't tell anyone who he voted for, but you've got to see what happened when he walked in. the poll worker asked for his license. >> i need some i.d. >> oh, you're right. oh, no, i've got my driver's license. here you go. now, ignore the fact that there's no gray hair in that picture. >> and another first, meatloaf is making a political endorsement for mitt romney. he said it's the most important

election of his lifetime when he took the stage with romney in defiance, ohio. the first lady has her own strategy to get people to vote especially jimmy kimmel. >> election day, election day, up and at them, up and at them. it's election day! get your shoes on. let's go, move it, move it, move it, up, up, up! you can do it. >> okay. i'm voting. >> out the door! out the door! i need some carrots. >> she also does that to get people to work out. if you read only one thing this morning the artist who has carved pumpkins for the white house for halloween, he's the subject of my must read, but truthfully there isn't that much to read, the story is mostly pictures of his jock jack-o'-lanterns, they are unlike i've ever seen. you can see more on my facebook page. him. morning starts in high spirits,

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the presidential campaigns are now targeting very specific voting blocs in the final push toward election day, that includes latinos in florida, colorado, and nevada, the jewish vote in florida, catholics in the midwest and pennsylvania, the veterans in southern virginia, white collar independent women in northern virginia, new hampshire, colorado. let's talk about where these voting blocs are going and talk with democratic strategist steve mcmahon, co-founder of purple strategies and republican strategist david winston former senior adviser to the gingrich campaign, gentlemen, good morning. >> good morning. >> david, let's start with independent white collar women, there has been a barrage of advertising in denver, in boston and in the d.c. suburbs and that includes this new obama ad. let me play it for you -- >> your first time shouldn't be with just anybody. you want to do it with a great guy. someone who really cares about and understands women. a guy who cares whether you get health insurance, specifically whether you get birth control.

my first time voting was amazing. it was this line in the sand, before i was a girl, now i was a woman. i went to the polling station and pulled back the curtain. i voted for barack obama. >> david, is that effective? >> well, first off, when you're talking about independent women, you're hitting two groups at the same time, independents and women. but i think one of the differences the two campaigns have in terms of their strategy the president has tried to approach these groups in terms of, again, women's issues or youth issues as opposed to governor romney who wants to address economic issues and i think that's two interesting dynamic in terms of how they're approaching these groups differently. >> is that the difference in the dynamic, steve? >> yes, david's absolutely right. i think the president's campaign is focusing on these women and on social issues that matter to them and whether or not they're going to be in control of their own health care and every time todd akin or somebody in a senate race somewhere in the country, a republican, says

something goofy about the abortion the obama campaign and the democrats jump on it. david is right the romney campaign is approaching it from a different angle and it seems that both campaigns are having an impact mostly with their base. the independent voters and the independent women are sitting out there going, okay, which of that's estwo ithese two issues more drawn to. >> it's shaping up to be the most polarized racial election since 1988 when you look at 79% of the nonwhite vote looks like it might be going in the direction of barack obama. this has become an election in which whites are largely voting for mitt romney or favor mitt romney and minorities largely for barack obama, david, what's going on? >> i guess i would disagree with that premise. when you take a look at bush running against john kerry back in 2004, the margin was 17. i believe the poll that you're referencing is "the washington post" poll. >> it is. >> that had it around 21. that's certainly within the range. but you go back, again, to his father running against dukakis,

the margin was 18, and ronald reagan the margin was 19. and republicans have been trying to figure it out for years, african-americans have been a remarkably loyal group to the democratic party and when you look at the minority vote there's a disparity that exists in terms of whites and how minorities vote. >> but obama's current 21-point deficit with the white vote, steve, will that be hard for him to overcome? >> it makes for a close race, but david is absolutely right. if you look where white voters are relative to democratic candidates for president the white voters are pretty much in line with john kerry or mike due ka kiss and others. and mike brownstein has an interesting article that he's written recently that basically suggests north for mitt romney to be successful he'll have to win whites by about 29 points about the same margin that ronald reagan carried whites by in 1984. obviously, you know, where the white vote goes is going to

determine how close this race is and maybe ultimately who the winner is but barack obama has real advantages among real large constituencies as well. >> would you agree with that analysis, it has to be 29 points for romney, david? >> i don't think it has to be that large. again, i go back to where bush was in terms of 2004, around 17. maybe a little bit higher than that. i mean, one of the things that steve gets at in terms of what ron brownstein has raised and that is one of the things the pollsters are struggling with is the sort of racial composition of the electorate, what will it look like in terms of this election in contrast to 2008 and 2004 and so when people are looking at the polls that's one of the dynamics that pollsters are struggling with. >> david winston, steve mcmahon, thanks so much, guys, good to see you. have a good weekend. also making news this weekend what we've been talking about the dangerous combination brewing out in the atlantic right now. hurricane sandy is moving north and soon she could combine with a nor'easter and that would create an even more powerful and

damaging storm. weather channel meteorologist mike seidel joins me live from singer island, florida, what's the latest there? >> reporter: hey, good morning, chris. out here the beach is getting hit pretty hard. this was expected more of a coastal impact. a lot of wind erosion. let me show you the beach erosion before we get to where it's going and what kind of impact it will have on the northeast and the mid-atlantic. as i jog down to the surfs here. the tide is going out. no issues there as the wind will be blowing northwest by then. look at the big drop-off here we've lost four or five feet of beach but it's a slope not a direct cut. wind erosion and we're starting to get more squalls today. if you're heading to florida this weekend certainly gown in south florida, it will be very windy tomorrow and even breezy sunday, but it will be dry and it will be sunny. let's show you the satellite loop. the latest. we're waiting for the 11:00 update from the hurricane center but right now it's a category 1 hurricane with 80-mile-an-hour winds moving through the bahamas moving northwest at 10 and then it will turn north this is about

as close as it gets to florida, so we'll get a brush-by. look at the track. it turns north, then northeast and then something we've never seen happen before, a hurricane coming in from the west, let alone in august or september, but almost halloween. we don't know exactly where it's going to make landfall, somewhere between virginia and new york. the bottom line inland it's going to be a giant windstorm, chris, this is potentially going to knock out power to millions and along and north of where the center comes in, we have the wind pushing the water, so we'll have coastal surge, flooding, also beach erosion and damage maybe to the boardwalk in atlantic city, that's not out of the question, so a major impact, an epic storm indicated by both models now, i don't think there's any way to get around it, all we can hope for if the models are wrong, it comes in somewhat weaker, again, the time frame monday and tuesday next week up there in your area. chris, back to you. >> mike, i know you'll be following and you'll be busy, so take good care out there. mike seidel from the weather channel, thank you.

an unimaginable tragedy here in new york where a nanny is expected of stabbing two young children to death before attempting to take her own life. the nanny is in critical condition with self-inflicted knife wounds. the children's mother found them after returning to their upper west side apartment with their third child. the children's father is a executive at cnbc. cnbc's president mark hoffman said there are simply no words to convey the magnitude of this tragedy. what we can do is come together to express our unwavering support for a friend in need. in britain, his daughter is roving with encouraging speed. the 15-year-old pakistani girl was shot in the head by the taliban for advocating girl's education. her father says his daughter will rise again to pursue her dreams and adds she is the daughter of everybody. doctors say it does not appear that she suffered significant brain damage. in spain more than 5.7

million people, 1 out of every 4 adults, are now out of work. spain is in its second recession in three years. it's under pressure to did ask for outside help to help ease its debt. and they're halfway there. the san francisco giants have won game two of the world series beating the detroit tigers 2-0 but there was a scary moment at the bottom of the second inning. jeff pfister takes a line drive right to the head. amazingly, pfister would stay in the game another five innings after that. game three tomorrow night in the motor city. a burst in consumer spending helped the economy get a boost. cnbc's mandy drury is here with what's moving your money. final gdp report ahead of election day. >> that's right, chris, and the gpd rose better than the expects of 1.8, and an improvement from the 1.3% rise in q2, we'd like to see better than 2%, wouldn't we and it was helped along by a

nice chunk of change from the federal government, lots of spending there particularly a big rise in defense spending. where else did we see pockets of strength? residential construction that's a good sign, right? housing recovery story, 14% rise of residential construction. the bottom line here, chris, we would like to see more savings and more investment in general to drive growth, not necessarily more borrowing and spending pushed by government monetary and fiscal policy. >> all right, mandy, we're inching closer to halloween, we were showing some jack-o'-lanterns earlier, but boxes of general mills monster cereals are flying off the shelves. >> booberry, count chocula, all the special careereals are big s this time of year, and just this month walmart says it sold tens of thousands of boxes. people are hoarding these boxes because, of course, the cereals are only sold during the halloween season. but, wait, it gets better.

some people are even selling these cereals for double the price on ebay if you really, really, really want your fix. and guess what, chris, these cereals are loved not just by children but also adults that grew up into the '70s, did we show the '70s commercials that, of course, we all might remember and love? >> there were grown men on my team who shall remain nameless that were whining how their mothers when they were kids would not let them eat count chocula, so i'm sure they are rushing out. >> i would be one of the mothers, no, too much sugar, no way you are having it even if it is halloween, what a mean mother. >> cnbc's mandy drury, i don't believe that. have a good weekend. thank you. the amount of money moving in and out of american politics this cycle is staggering. on combine $1.5 billion has been spent from january of last year to last month. let's put it a few other ways. first that's $70 million a month, $2.3 million a day

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or you can call or click today and get strips and a meter free. test easy. a new poll out this morning a longer-term analysis supports what the instant polls told us president obama was the clear winner in the third and final debate this week. he won over viewers 56% to 33% it wasn't even close but, of course, you remember mitt romney won the first debate. the editor in chief of the gallup poll, frank newport is back with us again. good to see you. >> good morning. >> when you ask people their overall impressions, they say slightly more to mitt romney. what's the takeaway from the debates? >> basically even, 46-44, so this is very specific now. think about all three debates and people put it together and it breaks even. so, the takeaway is what we would call a primacy effect. how is that for a nice word?

>> what does it mean? >> the first debate out of the chute seems to say that it's a more important debate. >> maybe a wash. >> you about it was not strong for one candidate than the other even though they differentially performed. >> mitt romney has a three-point lead among likely voters but it was as high as seven a week ago. so, again, here we are 11 days out from the election, how close is this race? >> it's quite close, but as you can see here and i think other polls are showing the same thing that there is an edge to mitt romney in the popular national vote, now, this is within the margin of error but nevertheless you'd rather be on top than below. what's interesting, chris, it raises the possibility at any rate of a split election where the electoral college can go to one candidate and the popular to another win. >> there may never be another race that looks this close for the final two weekends, which

begs the question, you know history, what could move these numbers in any marked way? >> that's a good question. will there be october surprises. there are no more specific events, the third debate was the last scheduled event and they are campaigning frankically 15 hours a day both candidates. there's a storm coming and by the time election day comes around, it will be gone, will the president be able to be presidential and romney could go to the damage, could that have an impact, we don't know. but there's a lot of unknowns. >> they may have to give up their schedules in the battleground states. you guys might have to give up polling. >> it affects us because if a sizable amount of the country can't communicate, power is out or disrupted, we might have to stop polling when the days that the storm hits unfortunately. >> it's all about turnout and you have interesting new race on the razor thin race on key demographic groups. tell us what you found. >> this is comparing our fund -- not exit polls, but this is '08

our last estimate of what the electorate looked like, this won't be election day, but what we're finding out now, very little change by gender or ethnicity, but we are seeing a phenomena where this was the highest democratic identifications we've seen in recent decades in 2008. obama had really pushed people over the democratic party and now we're much more even on party identification overall, so that's probably one of the most significant changes we've seen compared to '08. >> gallup's frank newport, always great to have you in. thank you very much. >> my pleasure. the tweet of the day comes from a senior aide at the state department who says simply happy 65th birthday to secretary of state hillary clinton. s of any small business credit card! how does this thing work? oh, i like it! [ garth ] sven's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! woo-hoo!!! so that's ten security gators, right? put them on my spark card! why settle for less? testing hot tar... great businesses deserve the most rewards! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one.

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it's neck and neck in nevada, a state president obama carried in 2008 by 12 points. the new nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist poll shows the president with a slim three-point lead in the state and that hasn't changed much since september.

richard lui is here with more on what the polls might not be telling us. >> right, chris. democrats have things to feel good about in nevada, over 50% that voted early went to president obama according to the new nbc news poll, those deciding whether to vote early or not favor the president as well by over 50%. also helping the president, registration numbers in the state, democrats lead with 42%, that's similar to 2008. bolstering the republicans' argument, though, the state's bad economy. unemployment is at 11.8%, foreclosures are fifth in the nation slightly better than its 62-week at number one. and almost two-thirds of homes remain under water. that hasn't stopped nevada's shelly adelson, he gave a new $10 million gift just yesterday, both sides have reasons to feel good in nevada, perhaps why both have scoured the state. since june romney campaign stops, 13, according to "the washington post." the obama campaign has made 15.

two key swing county stops, washoe and carson city, make up over 18% of the state, combined ad spends has walloped those residents $19 each person and if that doesn't open up a lead, it may come down to this message to hispanic students in 2010. >> i don't know that all of you are latino, some of you look a little more asian to me. i don't know that. i've been called the first asian legislator in our nevada state assembly. >> all right, that was sharron angle during the ration of 2010 and for different reason both she, sharron angle, and harry reid underestimated the latino vote. reid won by beating poll estimates walking away with 90%. the president now leads with 74%. analysts saying because of this potentially hidden latino base, if it's close in nevada, chris, it's going democratic. >> it's very important to look at the latino vote, but if you spent any time there, you know

that's not all of the minority vote there. >> yeah, if you look at the minority vote in nevada, what's happening there is happening across the country. i want to show you this latinos, blacks, and asians make up a large portion of the population there, altogether almost 45% of the state and growing. if you look at the 2000, 2010 race, that's over 100% growth in some spaces and for republican outreach here, chris, it could be the single most biggest challenge for the coming years. >> we all know and we've talked about it a lot that latinos tend to vote in smaller percentages and the get out the vote will be important when you look at all those populations, we shall see, richard, thank you very much. have a good weekend. that wraps up this hour of "chris jansing & co." thomas roberts is up next. >> good morning to you, chris, and everybody. we'll look at the wild, wild west, reporters on the ground in nevada and colorado, but topping our agenda, who has the big mo, 11 days to election day and the battleground states all-important right now and the national polls tell two very

different stories the obama campaign is focusing on women while mitt romney is making it all about the economy, so what is the real choice? i'll talk with the dnc chair, congressman debbie wasserman schul schultz, she joins me. a new low, a top romney aide suggests the colin powell endorsement is all about race and he walks it back. our power panel will weigh in on that one. and the real october surprise, hurricane sandy, this historic storm taking aim at major cities up and down the eastern coastline. we're going to have details on the latest models on that storm and a lot more coming tup at ei top of the hour. they work with vmware to provide virtualization and cloud solutions tailored to a company's unique i.t. needs. so, you're my caddy. what solution would you provide for me now? well, you're 30 yards away from the green. you've got a bunker to the left of you and a bunker to the right of you. and remember, this is client golf.

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introducing the new droid razr maxx hd by motorola. now more than ever droid does. hi, everybody, good morning i'm thomas roberts. topping the agenda who has the big mo, 11 days to go in this race and it's tighter than a drum. both candidates drawing crowds in the thousands in the final stretch. both leading and both behind in the polls? really depends on which poll that you're talking about. it will leave you scratching your head. we start with the nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist poll, and in the western swing state of

colorado, a dead heat. national numbers from the abc and "the washington post" give mitt romney a three-point advantage but trusted polling analyst nate silver gives the president a 73% chance of winning. the big question, are we heading for a national electoral college split? >> take all the polls, really does seem like mitt romney is moving away from barack obama, and yet you go to these swing states, nevada. >> he could very well lose the national vote and win the electoral college vote, that's never happened before. >> it happened before with george w. bush and that's how we elect presidents and they know that. >> president obama will hit the interview circuit today doing a total of ten different interviews including one called "ask obama live" today on mtv going after the youth vote. the president back at the white house after wrapping up the 48-hour battle ground blitz a blitz during which he made history in on stop to chicago by being the first